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Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information! -Links for the Curious- ...

TIMESTAMPS 0:00 - The Russia-Ukraine prediction 3:00 - Hedgehogs vs Foxes 6:15 - Reference class forecasting 9:35 - Base ...

This is an audio version of the Wikipedia Article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_forecasting 00:00:11 1 Important ...

Bent Flyvbjerg started the conversation about phronesis in social sciences research nearly two decades ago. Why does this ...

Frank Weber, Research assistant at Rostock University Medical Center The projection predictive variable selection for Bayesian ...

Then we give you three science-backed counter-measures: — Reference Class Forecasting / Outside View (Kahneman ...

Is a brain all you need to have a functional mind? Is the body just peripheral to cognition? Many researchers think so, but ...

Boredom isn't just murderously frustrating, it's a psychological trait with surprisingly far-reaching effects. -Links for the Curious- ...

Newcomb's Problem: it's like "Is a hotdog a sandwich?," but WAY nerdier, with deep implications for rationality. NOTE: Thanks also ...

This video introduces the concept that a linear model implies a correlation matrix, commonly encountered in advanced ...

Un/satisfying gif albums are scratching a very human itch. Where does it come from, & does it mean anything? -Links for the ...

Bayesian statistics - what are they? Do I want them? What do they have to do with epistemology, rationality, & prediction?

In this tutorial, I will show you: - How to make an API call to PVGIS using pvlib.iotools - How to include the data in your model Links ...

You've changed a lot, but you've got yourself more or less figured out now, right? You and everyone else. -Links for the Curious- ...

Aumann's Agreement Theorem suggests that rational folk shouldn't be able to continuously disagree...so why do we? -Links for ...

Multinomial logistic regression is a sophisticated method for predict which of several categories cases will fall in. jamovi takes this ...

Is discovery the work of genius, or an inevitable social process? The data suggest neither; maybe it's chance! (Sorry about video ...

Dimensional analysis is awesome, but human brains are depressingly easy to distract with number-crunching. -Links for the ...

The so-called "War on Science" isn't about hostility, it's a simple case of forgetting how science is different. -Links for the Curious- ...

What you will discover: how to detect deviation in circadian rhythm from one sample and an atlas of circadian genes in fruit flies ...